Benfica v Atlético Madrid
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Benfica beat Atlético Madrid 4–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Conor Gallagher for 1+ fouls committed (79%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Julián Alvarez for 1+ shots total (77%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
14 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor Gallagher | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alexander Sørloth | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Julián Alvarez | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Samuel Lino | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ángel Correa | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ángel Correa | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 3 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo De Paul | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Zeki Amdouni | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ángel Di María | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 4 | ✓ |
| Conor Gallagher | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Zeki Amdouni | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ángel Di María | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ángel Correa | fouls drawn | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
| Giuliano Simeone | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 64% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 64% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 61% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Benfica v Atlético Madrid?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Benfica v Atlético Madrid?
The most confident call it got wrong was Julián Alvarez at 77% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.