Five selections from the player report, free in your inbox.
Picked from 41 selections across 14 matches on this week’s slate, each with its record and the market price. The player report, the team report and Build a slip have the rest.
Or open the player report, open the screener or see the track record
Check your inbox — click the link in the confirmation email and the player report will follow.
Widest gaps on the Mon 12 Oct slate
Premier League, La Liga and Serie A — each player's last 10 games against what a typical starter in that league manages
- AROUND EVENSa harder line, a bigger return
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Éderson 1+ shots on targetCentral midfielderAtalanta v Venezia Soft match-up give up the 1st-most shots on target of 20 0.6 a game3/22.55 BetMGM 5 of 10 games 3 of 10 for a typical starter Shot map Verdict: the model's verdict on Éderson, 1+ shots on target, in Pro
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Hassane Kamara 1+ shots on targetWing-backTorino v Udinese Even match-up give up the 8th-most shots on target of 20 0.5 a game13/53.70 BetMGM 3 of 10 games 3 of 10 for a typical starter Shot map Verdict: the model's verdict on Hassane Kamara, 1+ shots on target, in Pro
- LONGER PRICES3/1 and up, record still checked
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Adrián de la Fuente 2+ fouls wonCentre-backLevante UD v Sevilla Even match-up give up the 8th-most fouls of 20 1.3 a game3/14.00 bet365 4 of 10 games 2 of 10 for a typical starter Foul map Verdict: the model's verdict on Adrián de la Fuente, 2+ fouls won, in Pro
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Kike Salas 1+ shots on targetCentre-backLevante UD v Sevilla Soft match-up give up the 3rd-most shots on target of 20 0.4 a game4/15.00 BetMGM 4 of 10 games 3 of 10 for a typical starter Shot map Verdict: the model's verdict on Kike Salas, 1+ shots on target, in Pro
- ALSO ON THIS SLATEranked on record
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Sven Botman 2+ fouls wonCentre-backCoventry City v Newcastle Soft match-up give up the 2nd-most fouls of 20 1.1 a game9/25.50 bet365 2 of 10 games 3 of 10 for a typical starter Foul map Verdict: the model's verdict on Sven Botman, 2+ fouls won, in Pro
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Matt Grimes 1+ shotsCentral midfielderCoventry City v Newcastle Even match-up give up the 8th-fewest shots of 20 0.5 a gameEVS2.00 Paddy Power 5 of 10 games 6 of 10 for a typical starter Shot map Verdict: the model's verdict on Matt Grimes, 1+ shots, in Pro
Baseline = the share of player-games where a starter playing 60+ minutes met the same line, over finished fixtures in that league's most recent full season. The model’s verdict is in Pro. See every player on the slate
HOW IT WORKS
The model does the research. You make the call.
WHAT MEMBERS GET
Two reports and Build a slip, £39 a month
The player report
The model’s probability beside the price’s on every player line, grouped by match or sorted your way, with the record, the head to head, why the model rates it and the higher lines in the same market.
What members see: a player report card from the 10 October slate.
Open the player reportThe team report
Every team line on the slate, rated on each side’s record over the last 10, 20 and 40, the head to head, and the fair price once the bookmaker’s margin is taken out.
What members see: a team report card from the 10 October slate.
Open the team reportBuild a slip
Name a target price and a bookmaker. It picks one leg per match from both reports and shows why each one is there.
What members see: a slip built from the 10 October slate with every filter on Any.
Build a slipHow this weekend's referees compare
Appointed officialsA cards bet is partly a bet on the official. Each official’s card rate, against the league average.
More cards than the league
Fewer cards than the league
One input to the model; it does not decide a card on its own. All officials
From the live track record — how accurate the numbers are, not how much they won. Wins and losses alike: the model grades itself in public.
152 of 196 markets earn a verdict. The 44 that don’t beat guessing are marked on the track record.
10 competitions, each with a public graded record
Match-upsTrack record
Match-upsTrack record
Match-upsTrack record
Match-upsTrack record
Match-upsTrack record
Match-upsTrack record
STRAIGHT ANSWERS
Before you sign up
New in October
All updatesThe long version, with the actual statistics, lives on the methodology page — and the guides walk through the ideas one at a time, in plain English. Who's behind this, and where to get help if the fun stops.