A curated shortlist of stat-based player picks, sent the moment the markets open.

1. SHORTER PRICESthe strongest records
2. MF

   Matías Fernández-Pardo 1+ shots on target

   Striker · LILille v PAParis Saint-Germain Tough match-up give up the 2nd-fewest shots on target of 18 1112311001 1.1 a game
   8/111.73 bet365 8 of 10 games 3 of 10 for a typical starter Shot map → Pro
3. AP

   August Priske 2+ fouls committed

   Striker · WRWrexham v BIBirmingham City Tough match-up give up the 2nd-fewest fouls of 24 1123432331 2.3 a game
   4/51.83 bet365 7 of 10 games 2 of 10 for a typical starter Foul map → Pro
4. AROUND EVENSa harder line, a bigger return
5. MG

   Marc Guéhi 2+ fouls won

   Centre-back · CRCrystal Palace v MAMan City Soft match-up give up the 7th-most fouls of 20 0221213222 1.7 a game
   11/82.38 bet365 7 of 10 games 2 of 10 for a typical starter Foul map → Pro
6. EA

   Elliot Anderson 2+ fouls committed

   Central midfielder · CRCrystal Palace v MAMan City Soft match-up give up the 5th-most fouls of 20 1222202213 1.7 a game
   11/102.10 bet365 7 of 10 games 2 of 10 for a typical starter Foul map → Pro
7. AH

   Achraf Hakimi 2+ shots

   Full-back · LILille v PAParis Saint-Germain Tough match-up give up the 1st-fewest shots of 18 2403222013 1.9 a game
   EVS2.00 paddy-power 7 of 10 games 3 of 10 for a typical starter Shot map → Pro
8. ALSO ON THIS SLATEranked on record, price not yet posted
9. SG

   Serge Gnabry 2+ shots

   Attacking midfielder · FCFC Bayern München v VFVfB Stuttgart Tough match-up give up the 3rd-fewest shots of 18 0332312273 2.6 a game
   8 of 10 games 3 of 10 for a typical starter Shot map → Pro
10. CD

    Callum Doyle 1+ fouls committed

    Wide centre-back · WRWrexham v BIBirmingham City Tough match-up give up the 9th-fewest fouls of 24 1011131211 1.2 a game
    1/21.53 paddy-power 9 of 10 games 5 of 10 for a typical starter Foul map → Pro

Some rows carry no price yet. Bookmakers price player markets close to kick-off — usually inside two days — and not every fixture carries every market. The hit rates are complete either way.

Baseline = the share of player-games where a starter playing 60+ minutes met the same line, over finished fixtures in that league's most recent full season. Hit rates and match-ups are free — the model's verdict is the paid tool. See every player on the slate →