The price check
The same player bet, priced at every book we track, checked against the player's own record. Sometimes the record says the bigger price is too big. Sometimes only the gap says anything at all — and this page keeps those two apart.
The record backs the price
Where the player's own record implies a higher chance than the odds do — measured at the pessimistic end of that record, so a thin sample cannot manufacture it.
| Selection | Record | Even at worst | Best price | If subbed off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levi Colwill 1+ shots Sunderland v Chelsea | 33% 31 of 94 games Last 10: 3 Last 20: 5 | 24%the price implies 13% | 139/207.97 BetMGM 4/51.83 bet365 4.3× the bet365 price | not established |
| Mats Rots 3+ shots Crystal Palace v TSG Hoffenheim | 17% 10 of 58 games Last 10: 3 Last 20: 6 | 10%the price implies 5% | 19/120.00 Paddy Power 8/19.00 bet365 2.2× the bet365 price | not established |
| Jose Neto 1+ carded Benfica v Lech Poznań | 29% 12 of 41 games Last 10: 3 Last 20: 4 | 18%the price implies 10% | 9/110.00 BetMGM 18/54.75 bet365 2.1× the bet365 price | not established |
76 more selections are locked, including every one where only the size of the gap makes it interesting.
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How to read this
Every row is one bet, priced at two books. The record is every game the player finished 45 minutes or more of, so a five-minute cameo is not counted as a chance at the market.
Even at worst is the pessimistic end of the player's record — the floor we are 95% confident the true rate clears. A row only appears in the first table when even that floor beats what the price implies, so a thin sample cannot talk its way in.
If subbed off always refers to the best price's book, shown in the column to its left. It is the column no price comparison can give you. Some books move a player bet onto the substitute; some leave it with the player who has gone off. It varies by book and by competition — the same book can cover a Premier League match and not a Ligue 1 one. Where a book's rule has not been established, this page says so rather than guessing.