Bet builder markets — modelled, and form-only
The player and team bets SharpXI prices, and the thinking behind each. Most market pages explain the model and show the current Premier League leaders; the ones marked form only carry the hit-rate record and no value verdict.
Across 18,965 graded Premier League predictions, 17 of 20 markets beat the baseline — 2+ shots best, at 24.1% better than guessing. Erling Haaland (Man City) currently leads the Premier League for shots on target at 2.00 per 90.
Shots on target
Shots on target is the most-modelled player market in the Premier League bet builder, and one of the most frequently mispriced. SharpXI turns four sea…
Total shots
Total shots (all attempts, on or off target) is a higher-volume cousin of shots on target, so the lines run 1+, 2+ and 3+. SharpXI models each line fr…
To be carded
"To be carded" is a binary market — will the player pick up a booking — and it's where the single most mispriced factor in football betting lives: the…
Fouls committed
Player fouls committed (1+, 2+) rewards knowing which players actually give away free kicks — and against whom. SharpXI models the foul rate and the o…
Fouls won
Fouls won — the free kicks a player earns — is the mirror of fouls committed. Dribblers and hold-up forwards win fouls at high rates the market often …
Team & match goals
Match totals (over/under 2.5 goals), team goals and both teams to score are modelled from expected goals (xG), not raw scorelines. SharpXI fits attack…
Team & match cards
Match card totals and team card lines are, like player cards, driven heavily by the referee. SharpXI models the booking count for each team and the ma…
Goals Form only
Goals is the biggest player market in the Premier League bet builder, and the one most builders are built around. SharpXI shows how often each player …
Tackles
A player makes more tackles in a match than shots. Across 266,866 player-matches the average is 1.46 tackles per 90 against 1.12 shots and 1.03 fouls …
Outside-box shots on target
More than a quarter of all shots on target come from outside the box — 28.5% across 314,677 player-matches — yet a player hits the target from distanc…
Saves Form only
Saves is the one player market in the Premier League bet builder that belongs to a single position, and it is driven less by the goalkeeper than by th…
Assists Form only
Assists is one of the two biggest player markets in the Premier League bet builder, and one of the least predictable. SharpXI shows how often each pla…