Fouls committed — modelling a player's foul count
Player fouls committed (1+, 2+) rewards knowing which players actually give away free kicks — and against whom. SharpXI models the foul rate and the opponent's tendency to draw fouls.
How SharpXI models it
A recency-weighted per-90 foul rate, shrunk toward a positional prior, scaled by minutes and adjusted by how many fouls the opposition tends to draw. A Negative Binomial gives P(fouls ≥ line); Shin de-vig removes the margin.
Go deeper: How we model fouls →
Where the value tends to sit
Defensive midfielders and full-backs against pacey, dribble-heavy opponents are the natural home of foul value — the sort of match-up detail the market glosses over.
Premier League leaders this season
In the 25/26 Premier League season, Saša Lukić (Fulham) leads for fouls committed at 2.75 per 90, ahead of Merlin Röhl (2.59) and Pablo Felipe (2.51). Rates are per 90 minutes, minimum 450 played, from completed matches.
Per-90 rates across the league (25/26 season, minimum 450 minutes) — the players whose underlying numbers drive this market.
| Player | Team | Per 90 | 1+ hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saša Lukić | Fulham | 2.75 | 77% |
| Merlin Röhl | Everton | 2.59 | 56% |
| Pablo Felipe | West Ham | 2.51 | 86% |
| William Osula | Newcastle | 2.50 | 46% |
| Zian Flemming | Burnley | 2.49 | 76% |
| Manuel Ugarte | Man Utd | 2.40 | 59% |
| Amine Adli | Bournemouth | 2.36 | 52% |
| Simon Adingra | Sunderland | 2.30 | 64% |
| Lucas Bergvall | Tottenham | 2.21 | 70% |
| Thierno Barry | Everton | 2.19 | 74% |
| João Gomes | Wolves | 2.18 | 89% |
| Joelinton | Newcastle | 2.17 | 89% |
Frequently asked
What counts as a foul committed?
A foul the player concedes, per the match-data provider. Fouls won (drawn) are a separate market.
Are fouls a good bet-builder leg?
They can be strong value because the market prices them coarsely, but sample sizes vary — SharpXI shows a confidence rating so you can weight thin data appropriately.
SharpXI is a statistical tool, not a betting operator, and no model guarantees a result. The honest scoreboard is closing-line value over a large sample. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.