Bet builder markets — how each one is modelled
The player and team bets SharpXI prices, and the thinking behind each. Every market page explains the model, shows the current Serie A leaders and answers the common questions.
Shots on target
Shots on target is the most-modelled player market in the {league} bet builder, and one of the most frequently mispriced. SharpXI turns four seasons o…
Total shots
Total shots (all attempts, on or off target) is a higher-volume cousin of shots on target, so the lines run 1+, 2+ and 3+. SharpXI models each line fr…
To be carded
"To be carded" is a binary market — will the player pick up a booking — and it's where the single most mispriced factor in football betting lives: the…
Fouls committed
Player fouls committed (1+, 2+) rewards knowing which players actually give away free kicks — and against whom. SharpXI models the foul rate and the o…
Fouls won
Fouls won — the free kicks a player earns — is the mirror of fouls committed. Dribblers and hold-up forwards win fouls at high rates the market often …
Team & match goals
Match totals (over/under 2.5 goals), team goals and both teams to score are modelled from expected goals (xG), not raw scorelines. SharpXI fits attack…
Team & match cards
Match card totals and team card lines are, like player cards, driven heavily by the referee. SharpXI models the booking count for each team and the ma…