Goals — the players who score most often
Goals is the biggest player market in the Serie A bet builder, and the one most builders are built around. SharpXI shows how often each player has actually scored — the raw record across every finished match, not a projection.
How these numbers are built
Two numbers, both counted rather than estimated. The per-90 rate is goals divided by minutes played, times ninety, across the season, with a 450-minute minimum so a single substitute appearance cannot top the table. The 1+ hit rate is the share of appearances in which the player scored at least once. Nothing here is shrunk, recency-weighted or adjusted for the opponent — those steps belong to the markets SharpXI models, and goals is not one of them.
Go deeper: How a bet builder is priced →
How to read them
The hit rate is the more useful of the two for a builder leg, because a leg either lands or it does not. A high per-90 rate built on thin minutes flatters a player whose hit rate is modest, which is why the table ranks by hit rate first. Read both columns together, and treat a small appearance count with care.
Serie A — how this market behaves
Over 380 Serie A matches in 25/26, a player recorded 1+ goals in 7.1% of the 11,928 appearances counted here. SharpXI publishes no model verdict on goals in any league — this page is the record only.
Hit rate only. SharpXI does not publish a model verdict on goals. There is no modelled probability and no price comparison on this market — the table below is a record of what has already happened. The markets SharpXI does model, and its record on each, are on the Serie A markets page and the track record.
Serie A leaders this season
In the 25/26 Serie A season, Donyell Malen (AS Roma) recorded 1+ goals in 50% of appearances, ahead of Lautaro Martínez (50%) and Marcus Thuram (38%). Hit rates are over completed matches, minimum 450 minutes played.
Per-90 rates across the league (25/26 season, minimum 450 minutes) — the players whose underlying numbers drive this market.
| Player | Team | Per 90 | 1+ hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donyell Malen | AS Roma | 0.85 | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez | Inter | 0.70 | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram | Inter | 0.61 | 38% |
| Giovanni Simeone | Torino | 0.44 | 34% |
| Keinan Davis | Udinese | 0.43 | 33% |
| Hakan Çalhanoğlu | Inter | 0.49 | 32% |
| Dušan Vlahović | Juventus | 0.65 | 32% |
| Anastasios Douvikas | Como | 0.55 | 32% |
| Nico Paz | Como | 0.37 | 31% |
| Gianluca Scamacca | Atalanta | 0.68 | 29% |
| Alisson Santos | SSC Napoli | 0.43 | 29% |
| Riccardo Orsolini | Bologna | 0.42 | 29% |
Frequently asked
Does SharpXI publish a value verdict on goals?
No. Goals and assists are shown as a hit-rate record only — there is no modelled probability and no price comparison on either market. The markets SharpXI does model, and its record on them, are listed on the Serie A markets page and the track record.
What does 1+ goals mean?
It is a bet that the player scores at least once in the match. It is the only goals line SharpXI tracks, because scoring twice is rare enough that a season's hit rate at 2+ would carry very little weight.
SharpXI is a statistical tool, not a betting operator, and no model guarantees a result. The honest scoreboard is closing-line value over a large sample. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.