Outside-box shots on target — the long-range shooters, priced
More than a quarter of all shots on target come from outside the box — 28.5% across 314,677 player-matches — yet a player hits the target from distance in only 7.4% of appearances. The line turns on who shoots from range, not on who shoots most.
How SharpXI models it
We build a recency-weighted per-90 rate for the player, blended with how often the player shoots from outside the box at all, then scale it by projected minutes and by how many outside-box shots on target the opponent tends to concede. That gives the probability of one or more, compared with the probability the price implies.
Go deeper: How a bet builder is priced
Where the value tends to sit
The line suits players who shoot from range as a habit, not the ones who shoot most: a centre-forward can take five shots from inside the box and never reach it. Every record here counts only the matches where we hold the location of each shot, so a missing match is left out rather than counted as a blank.
Serie A — how this market behaves
Across 1,214 graded Serie A predictions from the 26/27 season, a player recorded 1+ outside-box shot on target in 10.2% of appearances. SharpXI's model beat that base rate by 7.1% here, against UEFA Champions League 8.3%, Premier League 6.1%, Championship 5.7%, UEFA Nations League 5.6%, Bundesliga 5.5%, La Liga 5.4% and Ligue 1 3.7%
Serie A leaders this season
In the 26/27 Serie A season, Armand Laurienté (Sassuolo) leads for outside-box shots on target at 0.60 per 90, ahead of Emanuele Valeri (0.20) and Jesper Karlström (0.20). Rates are per 90 minutes, minimum 450 played, from completed matches.
Per-90 rates across the league (26/27 season, minimum 450 minutes) — the players whose underlying numbers drive this market.
| Player | Team | Per 90 | 1+ hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Armand Laurienté | Sassuolo | 0.60 | 40% |
| Emanuele Valeri | Parma | 0.20 | 20% |
| Jesper Karlström | Udinese | 0.20 | 20% |
| Amir Rrahmani | SSC Napoli | 0.00 | 0% |
| Arijanet Murić | Sassuolo | 0.00 | 0% |
| Danilo Veiga | Lecce | 0.00 | 0% |
| Edoardo Corvi | Parma | 0.00 | 0% |
| Enrico Delprato | Parma | 0.00 | 0% |
| Filip Stanković | Venezia | 0.00 | 0% |
| Giorgio Scalvini | Atalanta | 0.00 | 0% |
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo | SSC Napoli | 0.00 | 0% |
| Jacobo Ramón | Como | 0.00 | 0% |
Frequently asked
What counts as a shot on target from outside the box?
SharpXI counts a shot as outside the box from where it was struck — outside the penalty area — and as on target where the match data records it on target. Penalties and own goals are not counted. Check your bookmaker's own rules for how it settles the bet.
Why do 2+ and 3+ show a hit rate but no value verdict?
Because the model does not beat the base rate at those lines. Two or more from distance is rare, and in all seven competitions it was tested in, the model did no better than a flat average at 2+, so those lines show the record and nothing else.
SharpXI is a statistical tool, not a betting operator, and no model guarantees a result. The honest scoreboard is closing-line value over a large sample. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.