Fouls won (drawn) — the market for players who get fouled
Fouls won — the free kicks a player earns — is the mirror of fouls committed. Dribblers and hold-up forwards win fouls at high rates the market often lags.
How SharpXI models it
We model the player's recency-weighted fouls-won rate with shrinkage and minutes scaling, adjusted by how often the opposition commits fouls, through a Negative Binomial for P(fouls won ≥ line). Fouls won are quoted one side only, so the margin cannot be removed from the price and stays in the comparison.
Go deeper: How we model fouls won
Where the value tends to sit
A skilful dribbler against a foul-prone defence is the classic fouls-won edge — the same match-up that drives fouls committed, seen from the other side.
Serie A — how this market behaves
Across 1,326 graded Serie A predictions from the 26/27 season, a player recorded 1+ foul won in 49.4% of appearances. SharpXI's model beat that base rate by 13.9% here, against Premier League 17.2%, Ligue 1 16.0%, La Liga 15.7%, UEFA Champions League 15.6%, UEFA Nations League 14.6%, Bundesliga 14.4%, UEFA Europa League 14.1%, Championship 12.1% and EFL Cup 9.6%
Serie A leaders this season
In the 26/27 Serie A season, Lassana Coulibaly (Lecce) leads for fouls won at 2.20 per 90, ahead of Danilo Veiga (1.40) and Strahinja Pavlović (1.40). Rates are per 90 minutes, minimum 450 played, from completed matches.
Per-90 rates across the league (26/27 season, minimum 450 minutes) — the players whose underlying numbers drive this market.
| Player | Team | Per 90 | 1+ hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lassana Coulibaly | Lecce | 2.20 | 100% |
| Danilo Veiga | Lecce | 1.40 | 80% |
| Strahinja Pavlović | AC Milan | 1.40 | 100% |
| Radu Drăguşin | Fiorentina | 1.19 | 80% |
| Armand Laurienté | Sassuolo | 1.00 | 60% |
| Lewis Ferguson | Bologna | 1.00 | 60% |
| Emanuele Valeri | Parma | 0.80 | 60% |
| Morten Frendrup | Genoa | 0.80 | 60% |
| Nicolò Barella | Inter | 0.79 | 60% |
| Amir Rrahmani | SSC Napoli | 0.79 | 60% |
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo | SSC Napoli | 0.79 | 60% |
| Mike Maignan | AC Milan | 0.60 | 60% |
Frequently asked
What's the difference between fouls won and fouls committed?
Fouls won are the free kicks a player earns by being fouled; fouls committed are the ones they concede. They're separate markets with separate models.
Which players win the most fouls?
Typically low-centre-of-gravity dribblers and forwards who hold the ball up. The SharpXI market page lists the current Serie A leaders.
SharpXI is a statistical tool, not a betting operator, and no model guarantees a result. The honest scoreboard is closing-line value over a large sample. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.