Player to be carded — where the referee is the edge
"To be carded" is a binary market — will the player pick up a booking — and it's where the single most mispriced factor in football betting lives: the referee. SharpXI builds a booking probability that puts the official front and centre.
How SharpXI models it
We take the player's recency-weighted booking rate, shrink it for small samples, then multiply by the referee's card tendency and an opponent factor, plus a modest derby multiplier where warranted. A Poisson booking model gives P(at least one card); the price is de-vigged before comparison, and isotonic calibration keeps the tail honest.
Go deeper: How we model player cards → · Current referee card profiles →
Where the value tends to sit
Bookmakers price cards mostly off the player and the fixture; strict referees are systematically under-weighted. A combative midfielder under a card-happy official is the archetypal edge.
Premier League leaders this season
In the 25/26 Premier League season, Hannibal Mejbri (Burnley) leads for cards at 0.72 per 90, ahead of Yves Bissouma (0.60) and Cristian Romero (0.58). Rates are per 90 minutes, minimum 450 played, from completed matches.
Per-90 rates across the league (25/26 season, minimum 450 minutes) — the players whose underlying numbers drive this market.
| Player | Team | Per 90 | 1+ hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hannibal Mejbri | Burnley | 0.72 | 37% |
| Yves Bissouma | Tottenham | 0.60 | 36% |
| Cristian Romero | Tottenham | 0.58 | 48% |
| Jorge Cuenca | Fulham | 0.56 | 40% |
| Joe Gomez | Liverpool | 0.56 | 19% |
| Jorrel Hato | Chelsea | 0.54 | 32% |
| Tim Iroegbunam | Everton | 0.54 | 31% |
| David Brooks | Bournemouth | 0.52 | 23% |
| Wilfried Gnonto | Leeds | 0.50 | 13% |
| Yoane Wissa | Newcastle | 0.50 | 16% |
| Vitaly Janelt | Brentford | 0.50 | 32% |
| Carlos Alcaraz | Everton | 0.49 | 20% |
Frequently asked
Is there a 2+ cards market for a player?
No — a player being carded twice means a red, which is rare and priced differently. SharpXI models the honest market: whether the player is carded at all.
Why does the referee matter so much for cards?
Card counts vary far more by referee than most punters assume, and the market is slow to fully price it. SharpXI uses each referee's booking tendency directly.
SharpXI is a statistical tool, not a betting operator, and no model guarantees a result. The honest scoreboard is closing-line value over a large sample. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.