Total shots — modelling a player's shot volume for the bet builder
Total shots (all attempts, on or off target) is a higher-volume cousin of shots on target, so the lines run 1+, 2+ and 3+. SharpXI models each line from a player's underlying shot rate and the opponent's tendency to concede shots.
How SharpXI models it
Same engine as shots on target: a recency-weighted per-90 rate, empirical-Bayes shrinkage for small samples, minutes scaling, an opponent concede-factor, and a Negative Binomial for P(shots ≥ line). The price is compared as offered — shots are quoted one side only, so the margin stays in it.
Go deeper: How we model shot volume
Where the value tends to sit
Because volume is higher, the distribution is wider — a forward who takes lots of speculative efforts can be strong value at 2+ or 3+ even when 1+ is short.
Premier League — how this market behaves
Across 1,245 graded Premier League predictions from the 26/27 season, a player recorded 1+ shot in 54.5% of appearances. SharpXI's model beat that base rate by 20.0% here, against UEFA Champions League 25.0%, La Liga 24.5%, UEFA Europa League 23.0%, Bundesliga 21.0%, Ligue 1 20.8%, Championship 19.8%, Serie A 19.6%, UEFA Nations League 17.2% and EFL Cup 16.2%
Premier League leaders this season
In the 26/27 Premier League season, Erling Haaland (Man City) leads for total shots at 4.00 per 90, ahead of Bruno Fernandes (3.80) and Bryan Mbeumo (3.80). Rates are per 90 minutes, minimum 450 played, from completed matches.
Per-90 rates across the league (26/27 season, minimum 450 minutes) — the players whose underlying numbers drive this market.
| Player | Team | Per 90 | 1+ hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | Man City | 4.00 | 100% |
| Bruno Fernandes | Man Utd | 3.80 | 100% |
| Bryan Mbeumo | Man Utd | 3.80 | 100% |
| Morgan Gibbs-White | Nottingham Forest | 2.00 | 80% |
| Pascal Groß | Brighton | 2.00 | 80% |
| Antoine Semenyo | Man City | 1.40 | 80% |
| Harry Maguire | Man Utd | 1.20 | 80% |
| Leif Davis | Ipswich | 1.20 | 80% |
| Neco Williams | Nottingham Forest | 1.20 | 60% |
| Daniel Ballard | Sunderland | 1.00 | 80% |
| Gabriel Magalhães | Arsenal | 1.00 | 80% |
| Jan Paul van Hecke | Tottenham | 1.00 | 80% |
Frequently asked
Does total shots include blocked shots?
It follows the match-data provider's definition of a player's total shots, which includes attempts that are on target, off target and, per the source, blocked.
Why are there three lines for total shots?
Shot volume is high enough that 1+, 2+ and 3+ are all live markets. SharpXI models the probability of each independently rather than assuming a fixed relationship.
SharpXI is a statistical tool, not a betting operator, and no model guarantees a result. The honest scoreboard is closing-line value over a large sample. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.