Real Madrid v Red Bull Salzburg
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Real Madrid beat Red Bull Salzburg 5–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Vinícius Júnior for 1+ fouls drawn (88%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Dani Ceballos for 1+ fouls drawn (81%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinícius Júnior | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kylian Mbappé | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jude Bellingham | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Júnior | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 4 | ✓ |
| Dani Ceballos | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Arda Güler | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rodrygo | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jude Bellingham | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Arda Güler | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rodrygo | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kylian Mbappé | shots on target | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Arda Güler | fouls committed | 1+ | 67% | 1 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Júnior | fouls committed | 1+ | 66% | 4 | ✓ |
| Federico Valverde | shots total | 1+ | 66% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Shots total · Shots on target · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 92% | 6 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 58% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 18% | 1 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Real Madrid v Red Bull Salzburg?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Real Madrid v Red Bull Salzburg?
The most confident call it got wrong was Dani Ceballos at 81% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.