Sporting CP v Borussia Dortmund
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Sporting CP lost to Borussia Dortmund 0–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Karim Adeyemi for 1+ fouls committed (80%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Jamie Gittens for 1+ fouls drawn (75%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karim Adeyemi | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 4 | ✓ |
| Viktor Gyökeres | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jamie Gittens | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 5 | ✓ |
| Serhou Guirassy | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 3 | ✓ |
| Serhou Guirassy | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Karim Adeyemi | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jamie Gittens | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Maximilian Beier | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Julian Ryerson | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Maximilian Beier | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jamie Gittens | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
| Emre Can | fouls committed | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Daniel Svensson | fouls committed | 1+ | 67% | 2 | ✓ |
| Viktor Gyökeres | fouls drawn | 1+ | 66% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 76% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 75% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 38% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Borussia Dortmund 0–0 Sporting CP Feb 2025
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Sporting CP v Borussia Dortmund?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Sporting CP v Borussia Dortmund?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jamie Gittens at 75% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.