AFC Ajax v Benfica
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before AFC Ajax lost to Benfica 0–2, the SharpXI model made 13 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Leandro Barreiro for 1+ fouls committed (79%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Enzo Barrenechea for 1+ fouls committed (60%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
4 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leandro Barreiro | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 5 | ✓ |
| Enzo Barrenechea | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Leandro Barreiro | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Wout Weghorst | shots total | 1+ | 68% | 1 | ✓ |
| Amar Dedić | fouls committed | 1+ | 68% | 1 | ✓ |
| Wout Weghorst | fouls drawn | 1+ | 68% | 1 | ✓ |
| Wout Weghorst | fouls committed | 1+ | 65% | 4 | ✓ |
| Samuel Dahl | fouls committed | 1+ | 65% | 1 | ✓ |
| Leandro Barreiro | shots total | 1+ | 64% | 2 | ✓ |
| Davy Klaassen | fouls committed | 1+ | 63% | 2 | ✓ |
| Enzo Barrenechea | fouls committed | 1+ | 60% | 0 | ✗ |
| Davy Klaassen | shots total | 1+ | 56% | 2 | ✓ |
| Davy Klaassen | fouls drawn | 1+ | 51% | 2 | ✓ |
| Enzo Barrenechea | shots total | 1+ | 50% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Fouls drawn · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 65% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 62% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 42% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on AFC Ajax v Benfica?
12 of its 13 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on AFC Ajax v Benfica?
The most confident call it got wrong was Enzo Barrenechea at 60% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.