AS Roma v Real Madrid
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before AS Roma lost to Real Madrid 3–4, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Donyell Malen for 1+ shots total (98%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Vinícius Júnior for 1+ shots total (93%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donyell Malen | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 4 | ✓ |
| Paulo Dybala | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kylian Mbappé | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 4 | ✓ |
| Matías Soulé | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 3 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo Mora | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jude Bellingham | fouls drawn | 1+ | 93% | 5 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Júnior | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 0 | ✗ |
| Endrick | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Júnior | fouls drawn | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Donyell Malen | shots on target | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Kylian Mbappé | shots on target | 1+ | 89% | 4 | ✓ |
| Arda Güler | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nahuel Molina | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Shots on target Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 73% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on AS Roma v Real Madrid?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on AS Roma v Real Madrid?
The most confident call it got wrong was Vinícius Júnior at 93% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.