Aston Villa v FC Bayern München
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Aston Villa beat FC Bayern München 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Harry Kane for 1+ shots total (82%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Michael Olise for 1+ fouls drawn (81%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
6 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Michael Olise | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jamal Musiala | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Serge Gnabry | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jamal Musiala | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Konrad Laimer | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Michael Olise | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 4 | ✓ |
| Jaden Philogene-Bidace | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jhon Durán | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Leroy Sané | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Aleksandar Pavlović | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jamal Musiala | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jaden Philogene-Bidace | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jaden Philogene-Bidace | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls drawn · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 41% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 34% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 27% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Aston Villa v FC Bayern München?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Aston Villa v FC Bayern München?
The most confident call it got wrong was Michael Olise at 81% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.