Atalanta v Borussia Dortmund
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Atalanta beat Borussia Dortmund 4–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Gianluca Scamacca for 1+ shots total (80%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Serhou Guirassy for 1+ fouls committed (70%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianluca Scamacca | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nicola Zalewski | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Fábio Silva | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ramy Bensebaini | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 3 | ✓ |
| Gianluca Scamacca | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Giorgio Scalvini | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Karim Adeyemi | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Isak Hien | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Serhou Guirassy | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 3 | ✓ |
| Lazar Samardžić | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 4 | ✓ |
| Karim Adeyemi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
| Serhou Guirassy | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
| Emre Can | fouls committed | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lazar Samardžić | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls drawn · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 63% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 62% | 5 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 10% | 8 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Borussia Dortmund 2–0 Atalanta Feb 2026
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Atalanta v Borussia Dortmund?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Atalanta v Borussia Dortmund?
The most confident call it got wrong was Serhou Guirassy at 70% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.