Athletic Club v Arsenal
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Athletic Club lost to Arsenal 0–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Mikel Merino for 1+ fouls committed (80%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Eberechi Eze for 1+ shots total (79%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
10 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Merino | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
| Eberechi Eze | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gorka Guruzeta | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Leandro Trossard | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Viktor Gyökeres | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 4 | ✓ |
| Mikel Vesga | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gorka Guruzeta | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Noni Madueke | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 3 | ✓ |
| Martín Zubimendi | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
| Eberechi Eze | fouls drawn | 1+ | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
| Álex Berenguer | fouls drawn | 1+ | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
| Robert Navarro | fouls drawn | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
| Viktor Gyökeres | fouls drawn | 1+ | 70% | 3 | ✓ |
| Leandro Trossard | fouls drawn | 1+ | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Athletic Club v Arsenal?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Athletic Club v Arsenal?
The most confident call it got wrong was Eberechi Eze at 79% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.