Athletic Club v Sporting CP
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Athletic Club lost to Sporting CP 2–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta for 1+ fouls committed (90%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Morten Hjulmand for 1+ fouls committed (74%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alejandro Rego Mora | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 4 | ✓ |
| Gorka Guruzeta | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 3 | ✓ |
| Luis Javier Suárez | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 3 | ✓ |
| Gorka Guruzeta | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 4 | ✓ |
| Luis Javier Suárez | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mikel Vesga | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Selton Sanchez | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Morten Hjulmand | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Oihan Sancet | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 3 | ✓ |
| Luis Javier Suárez | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 3 | ✓ |
| Robert Navarro | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Oihan Sancet | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Andoni Gorosabel | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Fouls drawn · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 40% | 9 cards | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 38% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 34% | 5 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · BTTS
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Athletic Club v Sporting CP?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Athletic Club v Sporting CP?
The most confident call it got wrong was Morten Hjulmand at 74% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.