Atlético Madrid v Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Atlético Madrid beat Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 3–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Alexander Sørloth for 1+ shots total (98%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Alex Baena for 1+ shots total (93%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Sørloth | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 2 | ✓ |
| Antoine Griezmann | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alex Baena | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 0 | ✗ |
| Julián Alvarez | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 3 | ✓ |
| Nahuel Molina | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Alexander Sørloth | shots on target | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Thiago Almada | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Matteo Ruggeri | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 5 | ✓ |
| Conor Gallagher | tackles | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Alex Baena | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Giuliano Simeone | tackles | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Koke | tackles | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Giuliano Simeone | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Dávid Hancko | tackles | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Shots on target Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 90% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 77% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 6% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Atlético Madrid v Royale Union Saint-Gilloise?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Atlético Madrid v Royale Union Saint-Gilloise?
The most confident call it got wrong was Alex Baena at 93% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.