Bayer 04 Leverkusen v Olympiacos FC
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Bayer 04 Leverkusen drew with Olympiacos FC 0–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Ibrahim Maza for 1+ fouls drawn (75%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Exequiel Palacios for 1+ fouls drawn (72%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibrahim Maza | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Patrik Schick | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 3 | ✓ |
| Exequiel Palacios | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ibrahim Maza | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mehdi Taremi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 68% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mehdi Taremi | shots total | 1+ | 68% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ernest Poku | shots total | 1+ | 67% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gelson Martins | shots total | 1+ | 67% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ernest Poku | fouls drawn | 1+ | 66% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lucas Vázquez | fouls drawn | 1+ | 66% | 0 | ✗ |
| Dani García | fouls committed | 1+ | 66% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jonas Hofmann | shots total | 1+ | 64% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lorenzo Pirola | fouls committed | 1+ | 64% | 1 | ✓ |
| Robert Andrich | fouls committed | 1+ | 64% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Shots total · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 56% | 0 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 47% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 29% | 1 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Olympiacos FC 0–2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen Feb 2026
- Olympiacos FC 2–0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen Jan 2026
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Bayer 04 Leverkusen v Olympiacos FC?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Bayer 04 Leverkusen v Olympiacos FC?
The most confident call it got wrong was Exequiel Palacios at 72% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.