Benfica v SSC Napoli
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Benfica beat SSC Napoli 2–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Leandro Barreiro for 1+ fouls committed (81%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Matteo Politano for 1+ shots total (73%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leandro Barreiro | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Enzo Barrenechea | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Scott McTominay | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 3 | ✓ |
| Juan Jesus | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Leandro Barreiro | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 2 | ✓ |
| Matteo Politano | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Scott McTominay | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Rasmus Højlund | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 2 | ✓ |
| Amar Dedić | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
| Noa Lang | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alessandro Buongiorno | fouls committed | 1+ | 68% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rasmus Højlund | fouls committed | 1+ | 68% | 2 | ✓ |
| David Neres | fouls committed | 1+ | 67% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Fouls drawn · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 51% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 50% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 48% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Benfica v SSC Napoli?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Benfica v SSC Napoli?
The most confident call it got wrong was Matteo Politano at 73% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.