Bodø/Glimt v Borussia Dortmund
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Bodø/Glimt beat Borussia Dortmund 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Serhou Guirassy for 1+ shots total (98%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Fábio Silva for 1+ shots total (97%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
6 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serhou Guirassy | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 1 | ✓ |
| Konstantinos Karetsas | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 1 | ✓ |
| Fábio Silva | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 0 | ✗ |
| Samuele Inacio | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 0 | ✗ |
| Maximilian Beier | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jens Petter Hauge | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ethan Nwaneri | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Felix Nmecha | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Serhou Guirassy | shots on target | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jobe Bellingham | tackles | 1+ | 82% | 4 | ✓ |
| Joey Veerman | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Waldemar Anton | tackles | 1+ | 78% | 6 | ✓ |
| Fábio Silva | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Fredrik André Bjørkan | tackles | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 67% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 66% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 25% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Borussia Dortmund 2–2 Bodø/Glimt Dec 2025
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Bodø/Glimt v Borussia Dortmund?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Bodø/Glimt v Borussia Dortmund?
The most confident call it got wrong was Fábio Silva at 97% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.