Bodø/Glimt v Man City
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Bodø/Glimt beat Man City 3–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Erling Haaland for 1+ shots total (98%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Omar Marmoush for 1+ shots total (98%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
6 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 3 | ✓ |
| Omar Marmoush | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 0 | ✗ |
| Phil Foden | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 4 | ✓ |
| Tijjani Reijnders | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 3 | ✓ |
| Rayan Cherki | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Erling Haaland | shots on target | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Omar Marmoush | shots on target | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rayan Aït-Nouri | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 5 | ✓ |
| Nico O'Reilly | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rodri | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Abdukodir Khusanov | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Max Alleyne | tackles | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rayan Aït-Nouri | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jens Petter Hauge | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 82% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 73% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 11% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Bodø/Glimt v Man City?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Bodø/Glimt v Man City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Omar Marmoush at 98% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.