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UEFA Champions League · 25/26

Bodø/Glimt v Sporting CP

How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Bodø/Glimt3 – 0 Sporting CP 11 Mar 2026
12/14
of the model's most-confident calls landed. Every one was published before kick-off and priced the same way as every other fixture. A single game is noise, not a verdict — the season-long record is on the track record.

Before Bodø/Glimt beat Sporting CP 3–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Luis Javier Suárez for 1+ shots total (86%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Morten Hjulmand for 1+ fouls committed (74%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.

Match officials
Ivan Kružliak refereed this match 4.13cards a game· league 3.96 15games
Ivan Kružliak's card record →
See the full player stats boardBoth likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

PlayerMarketLineModel ActualResult
Luis Javier Suárez shots total 1+ 86% 3
Luís Guilherme shots total 1+ 81% 1
Patrick Berg fouls committed 1+ 74% 1
Morten Hjulmand fouls committed 1+ 74% 0
Jens Petter Hauge shots total 1+ 73% 2
Luis Javier Suárez fouls committed 1+ 73% 1
Jens Petter Hauge fouls committed 1+ 69% 1
Luis Javier Suárez shots on target 1+ 64% 1
Jens Petter Hauge fouls drawn 1+ 63% 1
Luis Javier Suárez fouls drawn 1+ 63% 2
Patrick Berg shots total 1+ 61% 1
Patrick Berg fouls drawn 1+ 58% 0
Luís Guilherme shots on target 1+ 58% 1
Morten Hjulmand shots total 1+ 58% 1

How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Shots on target · Fouls drawn

Team & match markets

MarketLineModel ActualResult
BTTS Yes 57% No
Match goals O2.5 54% 3 goals
Match cards O4.5 31% 3 cards

How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards

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Past meetings

Frequently asked

How did the SharpXI model do on Bodø/Glimt v Sporting CP?

12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.

What did the model get wrong on Bodø/Glimt v Sporting CP?

The most confident call it got wrong was Morten Hjulmand at 74% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.

Are these probabilities hindsight?

No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.

Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?

No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.