BSC Young Boys v Man City
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before BSC Young Boys lost to Man City 1–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Erling Haaland for 1+ shots total (98%, had 8). Its clearest miss: Matheus Nunes for 1+ tackles (85%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
1 match on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 8 | ✓ |
| Jérémy Doku | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jack Grealish | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 3 | ✓ |
| Rodri | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Erling Haaland | shots on target | 1+ | 89% | 5 | ✓ |
| Jérémy Doku | shots on target | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jack Grealish | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Matheus Nunes | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rodri | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mateo Kovačić | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mateo Kovačić | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jérémy Doku | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jérémy Doku | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Manuel Akanji | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target Fouls drawn Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 81% | 2 cards | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 78% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 45% | Yes | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards Match goals
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Man City 3–0 BSC Young Boys Nov 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on BSC Young Boys v Man City?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on BSC Young Boys v Man City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Matheus Nunes at 85% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.