Celtic v Club Brugge KV
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Celtic drew with Club Brugge KV 1–1, the SharpXI model made 7 confident calls on the player markets and 3 landed — the strongest being Arne Engels for 1+ fouls committed (70%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Christos Tzolis for 1+ shots total (80%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
5 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christos Tzolis | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Christos Tzolis | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
| Arne Engels | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
| Arne Engels | shots total | 1+ | 68% | 1 | ✓ |
| Christos Tzolis | fouls drawn | 1+ | 61% | 0 | ✗ |
| Christos Tzolis | shots on target | 1+ | 57% | 0 | ✗ |
| Arne Engels | fouls drawn | 1+ | 52% | 1 | ✓ |
| Auston Trusty | fouls committed | 1+ | 46% | 0 | ✗ |
| Arne Engels | shots on target | 1+ | 36% | 0 | ✗ |
| Arne Engels | cards | — | 32% | Not booked | ✗ |
| Auston Trusty | fouls drawn | 1+ | 31% | 2 | ✓ |
| Auston Trusty | shots total | 1+ | 24% | 0 | ✗ |
| Auston Trusty | cards | — | 11% | Not booked | ✗ |
| Christos Tzolis | cards | — | 9% | Not booked | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Fouls drawn · Shots on target · Cards
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 58% | 4 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 50% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 47% | 2 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · BTTS
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Celtic v Club Brugge KV?
3 of its 7 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Celtic v Club Brugge KV?
The most confident call it got wrong was Christos Tzolis at 80% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.