Celtic v Lazio
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Celtic lost to Lazio 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 7 landed — the strongest being Mattia Zaccagni for 1+ fouls drawn (81%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Gustav Isaksen for 1+ shots total (76%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
10 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattia Zaccagni | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 4 | ✓ |
| Gustav Isaksen | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ciro Immobile | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mattia Zaccagni | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Daichi Kamada | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 2 | ✓ |
| Felipe Anderson | shots total | 1+ | 65% | 3 | ✓ |
| Matías Vecino | shots total | 1+ | 64% | 2 | ✓ |
| Daichi Kamada | fouls committed | 1+ | 63% | 3 | ✓ |
| Gustav Isaksen | fouls drawn | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Luis Alberto | shots total | 1+ | 62% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nathaniel Phillips | fouls committed | 1+ | 61% | 1 | ✓ |
| Matías Vecino | fouls committed | 1+ | 60% | 4 | ✓ |
| Mattia Zaccagni | fouls committed | 1+ | 60% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mattéo Guendouzi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 59% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Shots total · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 34% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 26% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 19% | 6 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Lazio 2–0 Celtic Nov 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Celtic v Lazio?
7 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Celtic v Lazio?
The most confident call it got wrong was Gustav Isaksen at 76% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.