Celtic v Real Madrid
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Celtic lost to Real Madrid 0–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 7 landed — the strongest being Vinícius Júnior for 1+ shots total (78%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Karim Benzema for 1+ shots total (81%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karim Benzema | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Vinícius Júnior | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 3 | ✓ |
| Eden Hazard | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Federico Valverde | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Júnior | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Aurélien Tchouaméni | fouls committed | 1+ | 69% | 0 | ✗ |
| Eden Hazard | fouls drawn | 1+ | 68% | 2 | ✓ |
| Luka Modrić | shots total | 1+ | 64% | 2 | ✓ |
| Toni Kroos | fouls committed | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Toni Kroos | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Eden Hazard | fouls committed | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Toni Kroos | fouls drawn | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Federico Valverde | fouls drawn | 1+ | 62% | 0 | ✗ |
| Luka Modrić | fouls committed | 1+ | 61% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls drawn · Fouls committed
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Real Madrid 5–1 Celtic Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Celtic v Real Madrid?
7 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Celtic v Real Madrid?
The most confident call it got wrong was Karim Benzema at 81% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.