Updated daily through the season. Spot something off? Tell us →Updated daily. Tell us →
SharpXI© Open the screener
UEFA Champions League · 24/25

FC Barcelona v BSC Young Boys

How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

FC Barcelona5 – 0 BSC Young Boys 1 Oct 2024
9/14
of the model's most-confident calls landed. Every one was published before kick-off and priced the same way as every other fixture. A single game is noise, not a verdict — the season-long record is on the track record.

Before FC Barcelona beat BSC Young Boys 5–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Raphinha for 1+ shots total (87%, had 6). Its clearest miss: Ansu Fati for 1+ shots total (89%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.

Match officials
Eric Lambrechts refereed this match

8 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →

See the full player stats boardBoth likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

PlayerMarketLineModel ActualResult
Ansu Fati shots total 1+ 89% 0
Raphinha shots total 1+ 87% 6
Robert Lewandowski shots total 1+ 87% 5
Lamine Yamal fouls drawn 1+ 86% 3
Lamine Yamal shots total 1+ 84% 2
Alejandro Balde fouls drawn 1+ 82% 1
Ansu Fati fouls drawn 1+ 82% 0
Ferran Torres shots total 1+ 81% 3
Pedri fouls drawn 1+ 77% 1
Robert Lewandowski fouls drawn 1+ 75% 1
Marc Casadó fouls drawn 1+ 74% 2
Marc Casadó shots total 1+ 72% 0
Jaouen Hadjam fouls committed 1+ 72% 0
Ansu Fati shots on target 1+ 70% 0

How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls drawn · Fouls committed · Shots on target

Team & match markets

MarketLineModel ActualResult
Match goals O2.5 76% 5 goals
Match cards O4.5 66% 2 cards
BTTS Yes 54% No

How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards

Dig deeper

Frequently asked

How did the SharpXI model do on FC Barcelona v BSC Young Boys?

9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.

What did the model get wrong on FC Barcelona v BSC Young Boys?

The most confident call it got wrong was Ansu Fati at 89% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.

Are these probabilities hindsight?

No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.

Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?

No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.