FC Barcelona v FC Viktoria Plzeň
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before FC Barcelona beat FC Viktoria Plzeň 5–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Robert Lewandowski for 1+ shots total (79%, had 6). Its clearest miss: Ferran Torres for 1+ fouls drawn (72%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
1 match on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Lewandowski | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 6 | ✓ |
| Ousmane Dembélé | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ansu Fati | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 4 | ✓ |
| Ferran Torres | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ferran Torres | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Robert Lewandowski | fouls drawn | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
| Frenkie de Jong | fouls committed | 1+ | 68% | 1 | ✓ |
| Franck Kessié | fouls committed | 1+ | 67% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pedri | fouls drawn | 1+ | 65% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ansu Fati | fouls drawn | 1+ | 65% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sergi Roberto | fouls committed | 1+ | 64% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ferran Torres | fouls committed | 1+ | 64% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ousmane Dembélé | fouls committed | 1+ | 64% | 0 | ✗ |
| Franck Kessié | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls drawn · Fouls committed
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- FC Viktoria Plzeň 2–4 FC Barcelona Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on FC Barcelona v FC Viktoria Plzeň?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on FC Barcelona v FC Viktoria Plzeň?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ferran Torres at 72% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.