FC Barcelona v FC Viktoria Plzeň
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before FC Barcelona beat FC Viktoria Plzeň 5–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Robert Lewandowski for 1+ shots total (96%, had 6). Its clearest miss: Jordi Alba for 1+ tackles (75%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
1 match on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Lewandowski | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 6 | ✓ |
| Ousmane Dembélé | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ferran Torres | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ansu Fati | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 4 | ✓ |
| Frenkie de Jong | tackles | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
| Franck Kessié | tackles | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jordi Alba | tackles | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sergi Roberto | tackles | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Franck Kessié | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 3 | ✓ |
| Frenkie de Jong | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Andreas Christensen | tackles | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Pedri | tackles | 1+ | 73% | 3 | ✓ |
| Robert Lewandowski | shots on target | 1+ | 72% | 4 | ✓ |
| Ferran Torres | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Shots on target Fouls drawn
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- FC Viktoria Plzeň 2–4 FC Barcelona Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on FC Barcelona v FC Viktoria Plzeň?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on FC Barcelona v FC Viktoria Plzeň?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jordi Alba at 75% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.