FC Barcelona v Newcastle
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before FC Barcelona beat Newcastle 7–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Robert Lewandowski for 1+ shots total (98%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Dani Olmo for 1+ shots total (96%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 4 | ✓ |
| Raphinha | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 5 | ✓ |
| Robert Lewandowski | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 4 | ✓ |
| Ferran Torres | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dani Olmo | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 0 | ✗ |
| Fermín López | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Harvey Barnes | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Anthony Gordon | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Joelinton | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
| Eric García | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jacob Murphy | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lewis Hall | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jacob Ramsey | tackles | 1+ | 82% | 3 | ✓ |
| Joe Willock | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls committed Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 67% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 66% | 9 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 36% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Newcastle 1–1 FC Barcelona Mar 2026
- Newcastle 1–2 FC Barcelona Sep 2025
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on FC Barcelona v Newcastle?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on FC Barcelona v Newcastle?
The most confident call it got wrong was Dani Olmo at 96% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.