FC Kairat Almaty v Club Brugge KV
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before FC Kairat Almaty lost to Club Brugge KV 1–4, the SharpXI model made 9 confident calls on the player markets and 5 landed — the strongest being Mamadou Diakhon for 1+ shots total (96%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Mamadou Diakhon for 1+ shots on target (72%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
11 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mamadou Diakhon | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 3 | ✓ |
| Carlos Forbs | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mamadou Diakhon | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mamadou Diakhon | shots on target | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Carlos Forbs | shots on target | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Carlos Forbs | fouls committed | 1+ | 66% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mamadou Diakhon | fouls committed | 1+ | 62% | 0 | ✗ |
| Carlos Forbs | fouls drawn | 1+ | 61% | 0 | ✗ |
| Carlos Forbs | tackles | 1+ | 61% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mamadou Diakhon | tackles | 1+ | 45% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mamadou Diakhon | sot outside box | 1+ | 43% | 0 | ✗ |
| Carlos Forbs | sot outside box | 1+ | 26% | 0 | ✗ |
| Carlos Forbs | cards | — | 17% | Not booked | ✗ |
| Mamadou Diakhon | cards | — | 10% | Not booked | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Shots on target Fouls committed Tackles Sot outside box Cards
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 67% | 5 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 60% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 33% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on FC Kairat Almaty v Club Brugge KV?
5 of its 9 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on FC Kairat Almaty v Club Brugge KV?
The most confident call it got wrong was Mamadou Diakhon at 72% for shots on target — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.