FC Kairat Almaty v Pafos FC
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before FC Kairat Almaty drew with Pafos FC 0–0, the SharpXI model made 9 confident calls on the player markets and 6 landed — the strongest being Mislav Oršić for 1+ shots total (83%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Domingos Quina for 1+ fouls committed (77%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
5 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mislav Oršić | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ivan Šunjić | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
| Domingos Quina | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Domingos Quina | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mislav Oršić | shots on target | 1+ | 68% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mislav Oršić | fouls committed | 1+ | 66% | 0 | ✗ |
| Domingos Quina | fouls drawn | 1+ | 62% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mislav Oršić | fouls drawn | 1+ | 58% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ivan Šunjić | shots total | 1+ | 54% | 0 | ✗ |
| Domingos Quina | shots on target | 1+ | 50% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ivan Šunjić | fouls drawn | 1+ | 42% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ivan Šunjić | shots on target | 1+ | 32% | 0 | ✗ |
| Domingos Quina | cards | — | 28% | Not booked | ✗ |
| Ivan Šunjić | cards | — | 26% | Booked | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Shots on target · Fouls drawn · Cards
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 41% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 38% | 0 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 27% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on FC Kairat Almaty v Pafos FC?
6 of its 9 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on FC Kairat Almaty v Pafos FC?
The most confident call it got wrong was Domingos Quina at 77% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.