FC København v FC Kairat Almaty
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before FC København beat FC Kairat Almaty 3–2, the SharpXI model made 8 confident calls on the player markets and 6 landed — the strongest being Jordan Larsson for 1+ shots total (79%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Mohamed Elyounoussi for 1+ shots total (68%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
4 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Larsson | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mohamed Elyounoussi | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mohamed Elyounoussi | shots total | 1+ | 68% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jordan Larsson | fouls committed | 1+ | 66% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jordan Larsson | fouls drawn | 1+ | 64% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jordan Larsson | shots on target | 1+ | 59% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pantelis Hatzidiakos | fouls committed | 1+ | 54% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mohamed Elyounoussi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 53% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mohamed Elyounoussi | shots on target | 1+ | 46% | 0 | ✗ |
| Pantelis Hatzidiakos | shots total | 1+ | 40% | 0 | ✗ |
| Pantelis Hatzidiakos | fouls drawn | 1+ | 38% | 0 | ✗ |
| Pantelis Hatzidiakos | shots on target | 1+ | 23% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mohamed Elyounoussi | cards | — | 20% | Not booked | ✗ |
| Pantelis Hatzidiakos | cards | — | 18% | Booked | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Fouls drawn · Shots on target · Cards
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 48% | 5 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 38% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 30% | 6 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on FC København v FC Kairat Almaty?
6 of its 8 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on FC København v FC Kairat Almaty?
The most confident call it got wrong was Mohamed Elyounoussi at 68% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.