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UEFA Champions League · 23/24

FC København v Galatasaray

How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

FC København1 – 0 Galatasaray 12 Dec 2023
9/14
of the model's most-confident calls landed. Every one was published before kick-off and priced the same way as every other fixture. A single game is noise, not a verdict — the season-long record is on the track record.

Before FC København beat Galatasaray 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Wilfried Zaha for 1+ fouls drawn (80%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Mohamed Elyounoussi for 1+ fouls committed (81%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.

Match officials
Daniele Orsato refereed this match

13 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →

See the full player stats boardBoth likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

PlayerMarketLineModel ActualResult
Mohamed Elyounoussi fouls committed 1+ 81% 0
Wilfried Zaha fouls drawn 1+ 80% 3
Wilfried Zaha shots total 1+ 79% 3
Cédric Bakambu shots total 1+ 76% 6
Tetê shots total 1+ 73% 1
Tetê fouls drawn 1+ 71% 1
Hakim Ziyech shots total 1+ 70% 1
Hakim Ziyech fouls drawn 1+ 66% 0
Cédric Bakambu fouls drawn 1+ 65% 0
Wilfried Zaha fouls committed 1+ 62% 1
Mohamed Elyounoussi shots total 1+ 61% 2
Hakim Ziyech fouls committed 1+ 61% 0
Mohamed Elyounoussi fouls drawn 1+ 59% 1
Angeliño fouls drawn 1+ 58% 0

How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Fouls drawn · Shots total

Team & match markets

MarketLineModel ActualResult
BTTS Yes 48% No
Match cards O4.5 48% 4 cards
Match goals O2.5 42% 1 goals

How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards

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Past meetings

Frequently asked

How did the SharpXI model do on FC København v Galatasaray?

9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.

What did the model get wrong on FC København v Galatasaray?

The most confident call it got wrong was Mohamed Elyounoussi at 81% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.

Are these probabilities hindsight?

No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.

Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?

No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.