Feyenoord v Red Bull Salzburg
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Feyenoord lost to Red Bull Salzburg 1–3, the SharpXI model made 5 confident calls on the player markets and 4 landed — the strongest being Jordan Lotomba for 1+ fouls drawn (68%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Bobby Clark for 1+ shots total (56%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
10 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Lotomba | fouls drawn | 1+ | 68% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bobby Clark | fouls committed | 1+ | 66% | 2 | ✓ |
| Bobby Clark | fouls drawn | 1+ | 65% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bobby Clark | shots total | 1+ | 56% | 0 | ✗ |
| Aleksa Terzić | fouls drawn | 1+ | 53% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jordan Lotomba | fouls committed | 1+ | 47% | 1 | ✓ |
| Hugo Bueno | fouls drawn | 1+ | 47% | 2 | ✓ |
| Hugo Bueno | fouls committed | 1+ | 47% | 2 | ✓ |
| Aleksa Terzić | fouls committed | 1+ | 46% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kamil Piątkowski | fouls committed | 1+ | 45% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kamil Piątkowski | fouls drawn | 1+ | 43% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jordan Lotomba | shots total | 1+ | 39% | 0 | ✗ |
| Aleksa Terzić | shots total | 1+ | 38% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kamil Piątkowski | shots total | 1+ | 33% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Fouls committed · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 64% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 62% | 4 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 55% | Yes | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Feyenoord v Red Bull Salzburg?
4 of its 5 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Feyenoord v Red Bull Salzburg?
The most confident call it got wrong was Bobby Clark at 56% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.