Inter v Atlético Madrid
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Inter beat Atlético Madrid 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Saúl Ñíguez for 1+ fouls committed (84%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Rodrigo De Paul for 1+ fouls drawn (82%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saúl Ñíguez | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo De Paul | fouls drawn | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lautaro Martínez | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 7 | ✓ |
| Antoine Griezmann | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Álvaro Morata | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Samuel Lino | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Marcus Thuram | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Hakan Çalhanoğlu | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Álvaro Morata | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lautaro Martínez | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Marko Arnautović | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Marko Arnautović | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Álvaro Morata | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Samuel Lino | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Fouls drawn · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 57% | 6 cards | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 46% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 44% | 1 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Atlético Madrid 2–1 Inter Nov 2025
- Atlético Madrid 2–1 Inter Mar 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Inter v Atlético Madrid?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Inter v Atlético Madrid?
The most confident call it got wrong was Rodrigo De Paul at 82% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.