Liverpool v AFC Ajax
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Liverpool beat AFC Ajax 2–1, the SharpXI model made 9 confident calls on the player markets and 6 landed — the strongest being Luis Díaz for 1+ fouls drawn (63%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Darwin Núñez for 1+ fouls drawn (55%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
7 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Díaz | fouls drawn | 1+ | 63% | 2 | ✓ |
| Diogo Jota | fouls drawn | 1+ | 58% | 3 | ✓ |
| Darwin Núñez | fouls drawn | 1+ | 55% | 0 | ✗ |
| Darwin Núñez | shots total | 1+ | 54% | 2 | ✓ |
| Thiago Alcântara | fouls drawn | 1+ | 54% | 3 | ✓ |
| Roberto Firmino | fouls drawn | 1+ | 52% | 0 | ✗ |
| Harvey Elliott | fouls drawn | 1+ | 52% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mohamed Salah | fouls drawn | 1+ | 52% | 1 | ✓ |
| Roberto Firmino | shots total | 1+ | 50% | 1 | ✓ |
| Diogo Jota | shots total | 1+ | 49% | 3 | ✓ |
| Fabinho | fouls drawn | 1+ | 49% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mohamed Salah | shots total | 1+ | 48% | 3 | ✓ |
| Luis Díaz | shots total | 1+ | 48% | 3 | ✓ |
| Kostas Tsimikas | fouls drawn | 1+ | 44% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 64% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 31% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 0% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- AFC Ajax 0–3 Liverpool Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Liverpool v AFC Ajax?
6 of its 9 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Liverpool v AFC Ajax?
The most confident call it got wrong was Darwin Núñez at 55% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.