Newcastle v Paris Saint-Germain
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Newcastle beat Paris Saint-Germain 4–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 7 landed — the strongest being Kylian Mbappé for 1+ shots total (98%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Randal Kolo Muani for 1+ shots total (98%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randal Kolo Muani | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kylian Mbappé | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gonçalo Ramos | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ousmane Dembélé | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 3 | ✓ |
| Bradley Barcola | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alexander Isak | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 3 | ✓ |
| Vitinha | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Achraf Hakimi | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Miguel Almirón | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Anthony Gordon | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gonçalo Ramos | shots on target | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kylian Mbappé | shots on target | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Manuel Ugarte | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Randal Kolo Muani | shots on target | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 45% | 7 cards | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 31% | 5 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 26% | Yes | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards Match goals
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Paris Saint-Germain 1–1 Newcastle Jan 2026
- Paris Saint-Germain 1–1 Newcastle Nov 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Newcastle v Paris Saint-Germain?
7 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Newcastle v Paris Saint-Germain?
The most confident call it got wrong was Randal Kolo Muani at 98% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.