Olympiacos FC v PSV Eindhoven
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Olympiacos FC drew with PSV Eindhoven 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Ricardo Pepi for 1+ shots total (72%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Ricardo Pepi for 1+ fouls drawn (70%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricardo Pepi | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Paul Wanner | fouls drawn | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ricardo Pepi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
| Dani García | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
| Dennis Man | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 2 | ✓ |
| Daniel Podence | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gelson Martins | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 7 | ✓ |
| Lorenzo Pirola | fouls committed | 1+ | 68% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ivan Perišić | fouls committed | 1+ | 68% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jerdy Schouten | fouls drawn | 1+ | 68% | 0 | ✗ |
| Paul Wanner | fouls committed | 1+ | 67% | 1 | ✓ |
| Anass Salah-Eddine | fouls drawn | 1+ | 65% | 0 | ✗ |
| Anass Salah-Eddine | fouls committed | 1+ | 65% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gelson Martins | fouls committed | 1+ | 65% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls drawn · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 52% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 51% | 2 cards | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 46% | 2 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Olympiacos FC v PSV Eindhoven?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Olympiacos FC v PSV Eindhoven?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ricardo Pepi at 70% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.