Olympique de Marseille v Liverpool
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Olympique de Marseille lost to Liverpool 0–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Hugo Ekitiké for 1+ shots total (81%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Bilal Nadir for 1+ fouls committed (76%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Ekitiké | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mason Greenwood | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Amine Gouiri | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mohamed Salah | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Bilal Nadir | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Hugo Ekitiké | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Joe Gomez | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Igor Paixão | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 4 | ✓ |
| Dominik Szoboszlai | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
| Florian Wirtz | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 3 | ✓ |
| Hamed Junior Traorè | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jeremie Frimpong | fouls drawn | 1+ | 68% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alexis Mac Allister | fouls committed | 1+ | 67% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 45% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 44% | 1 cards | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 43% | 3 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Olympique de Marseille v Liverpool?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Olympique de Marseille v Liverpool?
The most confident call it got wrong was Bilal Nadir at 76% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.