Olympique de Marseille v Sporting CP
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Olympique de Marseille beat Sporting CP 4–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Alexis Sánchez for 1+ shots total (74%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Mattéo Guendouzi for 1+ fouls committed (71%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Sánchez | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 5 | ✓ |
| Cengiz Ünder | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mattéo Guendouzi | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nuno Tavares | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Amine Harit | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 4 | ✓ |
| Valentin Rongier | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 3 | ✓ |
| Nuno Tavares | shots total | 1+ | 68% | 2 | ✓ |
| Pape Gueye | fouls committed | 1+ | 67% | 1 | ✓ |
| Issa Kaboré | fouls committed | 1+ | 66% | 1 | ✓ |
| Leonardo Balerdi | fouls committed | 1+ | 65% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alexis Sánchez | fouls committed | 1+ | 64% | 2 | ✓ |
| Amine Harit | fouls drawn | 1+ | 64% | 2 | ✓ |
| Cengiz Ünder | fouls drawn | 1+ | 64% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jordan Veretout | fouls committed | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 33% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 30% | 5 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 27% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Sporting CP 2–1 Olympique de Marseille Oct 2025
- Sporting CP 0–2 Olympique de Marseille Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Olympique de Marseille v Sporting CP?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Olympique de Marseille v Sporting CP?
The most confident call it got wrong was Mattéo Guendouzi at 71% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.