Paris Saint-Germain v Aston Villa
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Paris Saint-Germain beat Aston Villa 3–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Ousmane Dembélé for 1+ shots total (97%, had 4). Its clearest miss: John McGinn for 1+ fouls committed (85%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembélé | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 4 | ✓ |
| Marco Asensio | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 5 | ✓ |
| Boubacar Kamara | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 7 | ✓ |
| Youri Tielemans | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lucas Digne | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Désiré Doué | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 6 | ✓ |
| Matty Cash | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ousmane Dembélé | shots on target | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| John McGinn | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| João Neves | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Désiré Doué | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 4 | ✓ |
| Willian Pacho | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Marcus Rashford | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Shots on target Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 62% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 54% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 29% | 1 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Aston Villa 3–2 Paris Saint-Germain Apr 2025
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Paris Saint-Germain v Aston Villa?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Paris Saint-Germain v Aston Villa?
The most confident call it got wrong was John McGinn at 85% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.