Paris Saint-Germain v Chelsea
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Paris Saint-Germain beat Chelsea 5–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 14 landed — the strongest being João Pedro for 1+ shots total (93%, had 3). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
9 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Palmer | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| João Pedro | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ousmane Dembélé | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Bradley Barcola | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Désiré Doué | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Moisés Caicedo | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 5 | ✓ |
| Malo Gusto | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 4 | ✓ |
| Reece James | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Désiré Doué | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Willian Pacho | tackles | 1+ | 82% | 4 | ✓ |
| Désiré Doué | fouls drawn | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Marc Cucurella | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| João Neves | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 7 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 62% | 7 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 56% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 26% | 1 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Chelsea 0–3 Paris Saint-Germain Mar 2026
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Paris Saint-Germain v Chelsea?
14 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Paris Saint-Germain v Chelsea?
Every one of its confident calls landed this time — a single strong game, not a verdict. When the model does miss, those rows sit in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross; we never hide them.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.