Paris Saint-Germain v Juventus
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Paris Saint-Germain beat Juventus 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Kylian Mbappé for 1+ shots total (82%, had 6). Its clearest miss: Juan Cuadrado for 1+ shots total (73%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 6 | ✓ |
| Lionel Messi | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Dušan Vlahović | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 3 | ✓ |
| Neymar | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 4 | ✓ |
| Neymar | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 3 | ✓ |
| Presnel Kimpembe | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Juan Cuadrado | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Arkadiusz Milik | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Neymar | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 3 | ✓ |
| Adrien Rabiot | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 4 | ✓ |
| Fabio Miretti | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
| Arkadiusz Milik | fouls committed | 1+ | 69% | 0 | ✗ |
| Arkadiusz Milik | fouls drawn | 1+ | 69% | 2 | ✓ |
| Sergio Ramos | fouls committed | 1+ | 68% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls drawn · Fouls committed
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Juventus 1–2 Paris Saint-Germain Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Paris Saint-Germain v Juventus?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Paris Saint-Germain v Juventus?
The most confident call it got wrong was Juan Cuadrado at 73% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.