PSV Eindhoven v Borussia Dortmund
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before PSV Eindhoven drew with Borussia Dortmund 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Donyell Malen for 1+ shots total (96%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Marco Reus for 1+ shots total (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
7 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donyell Malen | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 5 | ✓ |
| Niclas Füllkrug | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Hirving Lozano | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Marco Reus | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mats Hummels | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 4 | ✓ |
| Marcel Sabitzer | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Emre Can | tackles | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Sergiño Dest | tackles | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jerdy Schouten | tackles | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Julian Ryerson | tackles | 1+ | 78% | 5 | ✓ |
| Marco Reus | tackles | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Marcel Sabitzer | tackles | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Niclas Füllkrug | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Julian Brandt | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 65% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 63% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 48% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Borussia Dortmund 2–0 PSV Eindhoven Mar 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on PSV Eindhoven v Borussia Dortmund?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on PSV Eindhoven v Borussia Dortmund?
The most confident call it got wrong was Marco Reus at 86% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.