PSV Eindhoven v Juventus
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before PSV Eindhoven beat Juventus 3–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Dušan Vlahović for 1+ shots total (82%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Tyrell Malacia for 1+ fouls committed (79%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dušan Vlahović | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Randal Kolo Muani | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tyrell Malacia | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nicolás González | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 4 | ✓ |
| Kenan Yıldız | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Randal Kolo Muani | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 3 | ✓ |
| Francisco Conceição | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nicolás González | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 3 | ✓ |
| Kenan Yıldız | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Teun Koopmeiners | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Samuel Mbangula | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Francisco Conceição | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
| Francisco Conceição | fouls drawn | 1+ | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
| Teun Koopmeiners | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 52% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 49% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 21% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Juventus 2–1 PSV Eindhoven Feb 2025
- Juventus 3–1 PSV Eindhoven Sep 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on PSV Eindhoven v Juventus?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on PSV Eindhoven v Juventus?
The most confident call it got wrong was Tyrell Malacia at 79% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.