Shakhtar Donetsk v BSC Young Boys
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Shakhtar Donetsk beat BSC Young Boys 2–1, the SharpXI model made 9 confident calls on the player markets and 3 landed — the strongest being Silvère Ganvoula for 1+ shots total (96%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Alan Virginius for 1+ shots total (91%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
5 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silvère Ganvoula | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 4 | ✓ |
| Alan Virginius | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Silvère Ganvoula | shots on target | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alan Virginius | shots on target | 1+ | 60% | 0 | ✗ |
| Silvère Ganvoula | fouls committed | 1+ | 60% | 1 | ✓ |
| Silvère Ganvoula | fouls drawn | 1+ | 59% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alan Virginius | tackles | 1+ | 59% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alan Virginius | fouls drawn | 1+ | 54% | 1 | ✓ |
| Silvère Ganvoula | tackles | 1+ | 54% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alan Virginius | fouls committed | 1+ | 49% | 0 | ✗ |
| Silvère Ganvoula | sot outside box | 1+ | 24% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alan Virginius | sot outside box | 1+ | 21% | 0 | ✗ |
| Silvère Ganvoula | cards | — | 10% | Not booked | ✗ |
| Alan Virginius | cards | — | 7% | Not booked | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target Fouls committed Fouls drawn Tackles Sot outside box Cards
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 73% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 61% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 25% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Shakhtar Donetsk v BSC Young Boys?
3 of its 9 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Shakhtar Donetsk v BSC Young Boys?
The most confident call it got wrong was Alan Virginius at 91% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.