Shakhtar Donetsk v Royal Antwerp FC
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Shakhtar Donetsk beat Royal Antwerp FC 1–0, the SharpXI model made 6 confident calls on the player markets and 4 landed — the strongest being Chidera Ejuke for 1+ shots total (96%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Chidera Ejuke for 1+ shots on target (71%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
3 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chidera Ejuke | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 2 | ✓ |
| Soumaila Coulibaly | tackles | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Chidera Ejuke | shots on target | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Chidera Ejuke | fouls drawn | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Soumaila Coulibaly | fouls committed | 1+ | 57% | 1 | ✓ |
| Chidera Ejuke | tackles | 1+ | 50% | 0 | ✗ |
| Soumaila Coulibaly | shots total | 1+ | 48% | 0 | ✗ |
| Chidera Ejuke | fouls committed | 1+ | 46% | 0 | ✗ |
| Soumaila Coulibaly | fouls drawn | 1+ | 43% | 0 | ✗ |
| Chidera Ejuke | sot outside box | 1+ | 43% | 0 | ✗ |
| Soumaila Coulibaly | shots on target | 1+ | 18% | 0 | ✗ |
| Soumaila Coulibaly | cards | — | 12% | Booked | ✓ |
| Soumaila Coulibaly | sot outside box | 1+ | 7% | 0 | ✗ |
| Chidera Ejuke | cards | — | 7% | Not booked | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Shots on target Fouls drawn Fouls committed Sot outside box Cards
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 56% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 55% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 34% | 6 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Shakhtar Donetsk v Royal Antwerp FC?
4 of its 6 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Shakhtar Donetsk v Royal Antwerp FC?
The most confident call it got wrong was Chidera Ejuke at 71% for shots on target — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.